History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes

Powers and Thrones by Dan Jones begins with the fall of the western Roman Empire, which has a fair few ‘rhymes’ with our current predicament …

For one:

“Romans liked to tell each other they were favoured by the gods. In fact, for much of their history, they were blessed with good weather.”

[The end of the ‘Roman Warm Period’ in around 400 CE coincides with the decline of the Roman Empire. It matters when the climate changes.]

And:

“The entire Roman economy depended on Carthaginian grain exports.”

[When the Vandals took Carthage in 439, the Romans lost control of a key resource. It matters where stuff comes from.]

And:

“The root purpose of the empire was to funnel wealth to be spent in Rome: in that sense it was a racket based on rampant exploitation.”

[Eventually, conquered tribes and areas grew weary of seeing Roman aristocrats getting richer and richer. It matters what the underlying incentives are.]

The key thing here is that the collapse of the Roman Empire was not down to a simple, linear, cause and effect. [Because nothing ever is].

Rather, it was the climate, AND the resources, AND the incentives, AND a bunch of other things I haven’t mentioned here. The overlapping and interweaving of multiple factors and complex systems.

One last thought -

Empires rise.

And empires fall …

But - people?

We endure.

PS The book is brilliant, by the way. Not at all stuffy, it reads more like a thriller. Highly recommended.