Shifting Baselines

When I was a kid, I would ride my bike up and down our street.

Kids don’t do that on my road anymore, mainly because it’s so much busier. It’s used more, and there are cars parked along both sides. There’s not the space to safely ride a bike any more.

But the kids who live there don’t know how much it’s changed. For them, the busyness is normal.

This is known as a ‘shifting baseline’ - the idea that our perception of ‘normal’ changes over time. When change happens gradually - like traffic increasing - we don’t really notice it.

I’m old enough to notice this in multiple areas. I remember our first colour TV, and not having central heating, and my first mobile phone, and getting dial up internet …

This isn’t just a grumpy old man thinking things were better in the old days, by the way! It’s about our perception of ‘normal’, because all those things I just mentioned are now ‘more’ - more cars, more TVs, more heating, more phones and computers. [And consequently more energy use].

I also remember my Dad’s windscreen being splattered with bugs when I was a kid.

Now - not so much.

Insect populations have declined significantly in the last few decades - but my 8-year-old niece doesn’t know that. She thinks a clean windscreen is normal.

This is another example of a shifting baseline - but this time it’s ‘less’. Less insects, less ice at the North Pole, less fish in the oceans …

There are shifting baselines all around us - if we choose to see them. The price of a pint, the size of your first wage packet, house prices, hybrid working, am I talking to a human or an AI bot …

The question is - do we notice?

And if so, does it matter?

PS Pic is of me 15 years ago - another shifting baseline! Prize for anyone who recognises who I’m with?!

A concept related to shifting baselines is the Overton Window.